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US Fed Rate Highlights: Did Kevin Warsh defy Trump? Fed announces 25 bps interest rate hike
US Fed Rate Highlights: The US Fed announced a 25-bps interest rate hike today. This is the first time the central bank has increased benchmark since 2023 and is being viewed as Chair Kevin Warsh standing firm against pressure from US President Donald Trump.
US Fed Rate Highlights: The United States Federal Reserve's hiked interest rates by 25 bps, its first increase since 2023. The central bank's rate setting committee has further indicated that a second hike is likely to come later this year.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to increase the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%.
The two-day meet concluded today, amid high anticipation that the Fed would raise interest rates for the first time in three years. The 12-member committee announced its decision at 11:30 pm IST on 16 September and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh addressed the media at midnight IST on 17 September.
The markets had priced a better than 90% chance of a 25-bps hike from the US Fed, Bloomberg reported citing swaps data. So, while this is the first US Fed rate hike since 2023, when Kevin Warsh's predecessor, Jerome Powell, led the central bank's post-pandemic hiking campaign; the announcement was in line with expectations.
Further, the Fed's new rate projections released saw median outlook for interest rates at the end of 2026 rose to 4.1% from 3.8%, signaling growing support for a series of rate hikes.
The US Central Bank has held US Fed rates steady since January 2026, choosing to wait to gauge the effects of energy price shocks and to let the impact of tariffs on prices ripple through the economy. However, in the previous US Fed meeting, a quarter of the voting members called for an immediate US Fed rate hike, dissenting from the other nine voting members.
Notably, most watchers were keenly watching Warsh's move on a rate hike amid intense pressure from US President Donald Trump for rate cuts. Trump was earlier at loggerheads with Powell on the issue and argued that sharply lower borrowing costs could help unleash a significant economic expansion, putting his preference for easier monetary policy at odds with the Fed's rate-setting approach.
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US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told reporters the central bank's independence comes from staying focused on its objectives, AFP reported. The response came amid questions over pressure from US President Donald Trump to cut interest rates.
“Part of the independence of the Federal Reserve is we stay in our lane. We let people that do trade policy and fiscal policy stay in their lane too. That's how we can stand up here and call them the way we see them,” he said.
US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh today said that the central bank's decision to raise interest rates was not influenced by financial markets. “We made this decision today based on our assessment of the situation. I'll observe market prices and see what they have to say. But today was our decision,” he said in response to a question.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the central bank's main focus is on inflation. He told reporters after the announcement: “Our predominant focus is on the price stability side of our mandate. The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long.”
“Our decision comes at a time when the American economy appears to be strengthening. The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long,” Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said after the announcement. He pointed to solid U.S. hiring trends, corporate profits and investments by businesses, AP reported.
According to the Fed’s preferred measure, inflation was 3.7% in July compared with a year ago, up from 2.3% in April 2025, just before Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, was 3.3% in July, the latest data available, up from 3% just before the Iran war and far above the Fed’s target.
Earlier Wednesday, the government said retail sales jumped 1.2% in August from the previous month, a sign that consumers are still spending at healthy levels despite sentiment surveys that indicate Americans remain gloomy about the economy. Strong spending is a sign that interest rates at current levels aren’t necessarily restricting the economy and cooling inflation.
Even with Wednesday’s easing, the pressure remains high. Brent oil is still well above its $72 price from before the war with Iran, when the 10-year yield was at just 3.97%.
Kay Haigh, Global Head and CIO of Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions, Goldman Sachs Asset Management in New York told Reuters: “The Fed has signaled it does not at this stage envisage an aggressive tightening cycle. Most FOMC members see a total of two hikes this year per the SEP, and it will likely skip October’s meeting given its proximity to the midterm elections. One more hike this year in December is our base case, although this remains contingent on upcoming CPI reports and the path of energy prices.”
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.95.
U.S. Treasury securities mostly held onto their gains, keeping yields lower. The 2-year yield, most sensitive to expectations for future Fed policy, was flat at 4.659%. The 10-year yield was down 4.1 bps at 4.957% and the 30-year yield was down 4 bps at 5.323%.
Major U.S. indexes were mostly higher after the decision, with the S&P 500 up 0.3% and the Nasdaq up 0.7%.
Inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years. The Labor Department reported Friday that consumer prices rose 3.4% in August compared to a year earlier, while the monthly increase quadrupled from July to hit 0.4%.
The Fed’s goal is to slow consumer and business spending by raising the cost of borrowing, thereby reducing demand for homes, cars and other goods and services, eventually cooling the economy and reducing upward pressure on prices.
The Fed last raised rates in 2023, when the central bank was still battling post-pandemic inflation.
The fresh hike will be sure to anger Trump, who has launched an unprecedented campaign to pressure the independent central bank to lower rates in order to spur economic activity.
The Trump administration launched a criminal probe against Warsh's predecessor Jerome Powell -- whom the president regularly insulted and berated — and is still trying to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
The forecasts were released as policymakers raised the target rate for fed funds by a quarter percentage point to 3.75-4.00%, which was widely expected. Their new forecasts sees rates coming back down in 2028 and for the federal funds rate to stand at between 3.5% and 3.75% in 2029.
The 25 bps increase lifts the Fed’s key rate to about 3.9% and, over time, could result in higher borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards. In a set of quarterly projections, the Fed also signaled that its rate-setting committee expects to hike rates a second time later this year to 4.1%.
“Inflation remains elevated,” the committee said in its brief post-meeting statement. “Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.”
Federal Reserve officials expect one more interest rate increase this year after raising rates on Wednesday and expect to hold steady in 2027, quarterly projections released after their latest policy meeting showed, a Reuters report said
At the same time, policymakers also marked up their near- term inflation outlook.
In a move that markets widely anticipated, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to increase its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis points. The move brought the overnight funds rate to a target range of 3.75%-4%, a CNBC report said
Jocelyn Fernandes is a journalist and editor with nearly 13 years of experience covering the business, corporate, economy and markets beats in news.<br> As chief content producer for around three years at Livemint (Hindustan Times), Jocelyn publishes breaking stories, explainers, features and live blogs on a range of business and economy topics, including the Budget, corporate developments, stock markets, income tax, money and personal finance, cryptocurrency, government policy, impact of US tariffs, international developments and more.<br> Jocelyn's writing philosophy is focused on delivering news in an accurate and accessible format for readers. She thus focuses her news coverage on explainers and FAQs in order to breakdown business, corporate, economic, and policy topics that are of importance to everyday readers.<br> She holds a Bachelors in Mass Media (BMM) and Post Graduate Diploma (PGD) in Journalism and Communication and has previously written for online business and markets news site Moneycontrol (Network18), Business-to-business (B2B) trade publications — the industry magazines Power Today and Solar Today (ASAPP Media), and the national news agency United News of India (UNI).<br> Outside of work, Jocelyn keeps up-to-date with local and international news, enjoys reading fiction books, novels and short stories, and enjoys movies, travelling and art. <br> She can be found on X and LinkedIn, and reached by email: <a href="jocelyn.fernandes@htdigital.in">jocelyn.fernandes@htdigital.in</a> <br> X/ Twitter handle: <a href="https://x.com/scribeJocelyn">@scribeJocelyn</a> <br> LinkedIn: <a href="https://in.linkedin.com/in/jocelyn-fernandes-journalist">LinkedIn</a>