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Economy, business and finance
Nifty faces risk of retesting June lows as rising US yields and crude oil prices remain key headwinds
After the extended weekend, the Nifty 50 began Tuesday’s session on a positive note but failed to sustain the early Momentum. The index opened 178 points higher on September 15, but selling pressure emerged soon after and strengthened as the session progressed.
Nifty eventually closed 279.50 points lower at 23,118.60, marking its lowest closing level since April 6, 2026. From the intraday high of 23,592, the benchmark corrected nearly 474 points, reflecting a sharp reversal from the early gains.
The pressure continued during the Closing Auction Session, with the index losing another 54 points as sellers remained in control into the close.
The day’s price action formed a large bearish candle on the daily chart, reinforcing the weakness seen over recent sessions. With Tuesday’s decline, Nifty has moved to a fresh five-month low and is now approaching the lower end of the broad range that has contained the index for much of the past five months.
The 23,070 level has therefore become an important near-term reference point. This zone represents the lower boundary of the broader consolidation range. A sustained close below it could signal a further deterioration in the market structure and expose the index to deeper levels.
Momentum indicators continue to point towards a weak market setup. Nifty is currently trading around 4.18% below its 50-DMA and 3.25% below its 20-DMA, showing how sharply the index has moved away from its key short-term averages.
During Tuesday’s session, the index tested its 8-EMA before reversing sharply and later slipping below its channel support.
The 14-period daily RSI has declined to 22.23, placing the index firmly in oversold territory. On the weekly chart, RSI has moved below the 40 mark, suggesting that Momentum weakness is no longer limited to the short-term timeframe.
The MACD histogram also continues to reflect strong negative momentum.
From its August 3 high, Nifty has corrected by around 1,655 points, translating into a decline of approximately 6.68%.
On the upside, the first resistance zone is seen between 23,267 and 23,380. The index would need to reclaim and sustain above this band before the short-term setup begins to show signs of stabilisation.
Beyond this, the 23,572 to 23,623 zone remains a stronger hurdle. This region coincides with the downside gap created on September 9 and could attract selling pressure during any recovery attempt.
On the lower side, 23,070 remains the most important support in the immediate term. A closing break below this level could open the door for a deeper correction.
If that happens, the April 2 low of 22,182.55 would emerge as the next major technical reference point.
For now, the market structure remains weak, with the index trading below key moving averages and momentum indicators continuing to favour the bears. Any recovery would first need to clear the immediate resistance band before the short-term outlook begins to improve.
Emcure Pharmaceuticals closed near the previous pivot level of its six-week base, supported by higher-than-average volumes. Its Relative Strength line has moved to a new high, indicating strong outperformance against the broader market.
The stock is trading above all key short- and long-term moving averages, while the moving average ribbon remains in an uptrend. The Bollinger Bands have also started expanding, suggesting a pick-up in volatility that could support the next directional move.
Momentum indicators remain favourable. The weekly MACD has generated a fresh bullish signal, while the RSI continues to remain in the strong bullish zone across multiple time frames. The Elder Impulse System has also formed a bullish bar, further supporting the positive technical setup.
Overall, the stock is trading close to its previous pivot and appears well placed for a potential breakout. A sustained move above ₹2,000 would strengthen the bullish setup and could open the way towards ₹2,135, followed by ₹2,200. The stop-loss can be maintained at ₹1,920.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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