Vance Just Went From Punchline to Pole Position

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Democrats, take note: Vice President JD Vance is not awkward donut shop guy anymore.In just two years, he has blossomed into a sure-footed, confident speaker, fundraiser and GOP frontrunner. Those chubby-faced Vance memes might be funny reminders to trolling liberals of who he used to be, but they are also a distraction from this: Come 2028, Vance will be a tough out.Unlike vice presidents before him who lacked main-character energy (Mike Pence and Al Gore come to mind), Vance is starting to come into his own. He has fleshed out his personal story with a book on his faith and more stories about Papaw, Mamaw and his wife Usha, with whom he recently welcomed a fourth child. Trump, for a time seemingly ambivalent about Vance, clearly likes what he sees now, citing Vance’s “central casting” looks and law school pedigree, and comparing him to Eliot Ness in his opening night speech at the GOP’s Dallas midterm convention. Vance’s 40-minute address on Thursday night showed off the glow-up, stirring the MAGA faithful to chant his name and 2028. “We gotta take care of business this November,” Vance said in response to those cheers. “Then we can worry about what comes next.”That pivot, if not really already underway, will happen quite quickly, with Vance already making high-profile appearances on the stump for the GOP in tight races, including Michigan and Maine.“I’m not asking anyone to agree on every single policy of the administration,” Vance said in his speech, which made little mention of the Iran conflict or tariffs. “What I am asking you to do is to recognize, in contrast, the radicals — and recognize the achievements of the last 18 months.” That’s a call for the MAGA base to hold it together in 2026 and beyond, with Vance, who has increasingly broad ties to sometimes differing factions of Trump’s movement, as next in line. While Trump has stoked a parlor game about whether he sees Vance, 42, as his MAGA heir, that quasi-shadow primary seems to have prompted Vance to work harder to prove himself as a real player in the administration and an asset on the stump.  America, of course, doesn’t like to promote sitting vice presidents. Only four have been elected to the presidency directly from the VP’s office, the most recent being George H.W. Bush in 1988. Before that? You have to go back to Martin Van Buren in 1836. But Vance is not just any vice president, in good and bad ways. He came in with historically low favorability ratings; that problem remains. A September poll from Bowling Green State University finds him with a 52% unfavorable rating and a 37% favorable rating. He’s also been a political chameleon several times over in his short political career.Yet he has some advantages. The same poll finds him way out in front of other Republicans for the 2028 nomination, with 44% choosing Vance, twice as much as Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 21%. An ambitious operator, Vance is the first sitting vice president to chair the Republican National Committee’s finance committee, giving him face time with conservative donors across the country and a big role in the midterms. The RNC had a record $130 million cash on hand at the end of July, dwarfing the Democratic National Committee, which is saddled with debt and lackluster fundraising.Vance also has a portfolio that he can actually brag about that ties fraud to anti-immigrant nationalism, an issue that animates the MAGA base. While the Iran war goes against his no-new-wars pledge, he has strategically distanced himself from that conflict without drawing the president’s public ire. On the 25th anniversary of Sept. 11, Vance stood with the living former presidents at a memorial ceremony at Ground Zero, while Trump marked the day at the Pentagon. Though Vance is in pole position, potential GOP 2028 candidate Senator Ted Cruz senses an opening. He has criticized Vance’s role in settling the Iran conflict. And Cruz was the runner-up to Trump in 2016; typically, the second place finisher gives it another go.But Trump will have the biggest say in who takes over the movement he built. As he boarded Air Force One to return to Washington, Trump said Vance was a “very talented guy.”“He’s been a great vice president, and I think he did a very good job,” Trump said in response to questions about Vance’s speech. For their part, Democrats are looking beyond Trump as well for the GOP’s new standard bearer. They see Vance as a lightweight and a punchline. “Trump’s an invasive species. I don’t see Trump, Trumpism lasting beyond Trump. Period. Full stop. It’s a cult of personality,” said California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has nicknamed JD “Just Dance Vance” in May at a Center for American Progress Ideas Conference. “With all due respect, JD, you don’t have it.”Democrats might want to start thinking about what Vance does have rather than what he doesn’t. More From Bloomberg Opinion:This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Nia-Malika Henderson is a politics and policy columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. A former senior political reporter for CNN and the Washington Post, she has covered politics and campaigns for almost two decades.More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com/opinion©2026 Bloomberg L.P.