AfD gains in German state polls pile pressure on Merz

Germany's regional elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are set to test AfD's growing strength and the CDU's resilience. The results could sharpen pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz and complicate his reform agenda.

Two regional elections in Germany on Sunday are expected to bring further gains for the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, and could shape whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz can hold on to power and continue with his reform plans for Europe’s biggest economy.

The votes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin come days after Merz’s party suffered a damaging defeat in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6. In that eastern state, the anti-migration and Russia-friendly AfD finished just short of a majority and is now closer than ever to leading Germany’s first far-right regional government since World War II.

Merz, 70, took office 16 months ago promising to revive an economy that has barely grown for years. But his government has struggled to improve the public mood, and he has become deeply unpopular. In Sunday’s elections, AfD is expected to make significant gains. However, it has no realistic route to power in Berlin and faces a much stronger challenge in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania from centre-left governor Manuela Schwesig than it did from Merz’s party in Saxony-Anhalt.

For Merz’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, the outlook is more difficult. The party could lose the mayor’s office in Berlin. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where it was already weak, it could even fail for the first time to cross the 5 per cent threshold needed to enter a state legislature.

Merz said last week that "giving up is not an option for me". But a deputy local CDU leader in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania called for him to go, and speculation has grown over whether he could soon be replaced. So far, no senior allies have publicly demanded his exit, and many have warned against "personnel debates". In a sign of the pressure ahead, Merz also cancelled a planned trip to New York next week for the UN General Assembly.

Wolfgang Muno, a political science professor at the University of Rostock, said, "Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will bring a disastrous result for the CDU. And if the CDU also does badly in Berlin and loses the mayor, then a great deal of pressure will be exerted on Friedrich Merz." Two conservative state leaders — Hendrik Wst of North Rhine-Westphalia and Markus Sder of Bavaria — have often been mentioned as possible successors. Muno said the national coalition of Merz’s Union bloc and the centre-left Social Democrats could try changing people and some policies. Even so, German news agency dpa reported that the CDU’s eight state governors publicly backed Merz on Wednesday, saying they were determined to tackle people’s problems "together with the chancellor".

Schwesig has pointed to what critics see as a central weakness for Merz. "The chancellor doesn’t give people the feeling that he sees and understands their problems," she said this week. The government has struggled to convince voters that it can revive the sluggish economy through potentially painful reforms, including changes to the pension system. The governing parties are also divided over the details. Merz’s sharp style has added to the problem. Last year, he drew criticism when he said that "the prosperity our country today has can’t be preserved in the future with a work-life balance and a four-day week, so we must work more". He has also complained that Germans take too many days off sick.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the national government’s unpopularity is hurting the CDU, but the party also risks being squeezed in a direct contest between AfD and Schwesig. Muno said Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania have much in common, but added that "a significant difference is that, in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the current governor is by a long distance the most popular and well-known politician in the state".

Campaign billboards present Schwesig as "the woman against blue", a reference to AfD’s colour, and she appears to be taking support from other mainstream parties. Her AfD challenger is Leif-Erik Holm, a federal lawmaker with a relatively moderate image in a party that has moved steadily further to the right in recent years. He is hoping to benefit from the momentum of Saxony-Anhalt. At a campaign event, AfD lawmaker Beatrix von Storch said that "people are fed up and they want something different". She argued that Merz "is carrying out the wrong reforms" and said spending should be cut, including on Ukraine and development aid.

Holm’s lack of potential partners remains a major obstacle because mainstream parties refuse to work with AfD. That is an even bigger problem for the far-right party in Berlin, where its support is much lower and where the capital has generally leaned left in recent years.

In Berlin, the CDU has led the city since 2023, when it rode public dissatisfaction with local politics to win the mayor’s office. This time it faces a challenge from the left as well as problems of its own. Mayor Kai Wegner dropped his re-election bid in July after it emerged that he had not told the truth about parts of his handling of a large power cut last winter caused by sabotage. His deputy, Stefan Evers, is now the party’s candidate. The Berlin election is being shaped mainly by local issues, especially rising rents.

Merz has signalled that he intends to stay and has again defended his reform agenda. Speaking at a meeting of Germany’s exporters association on Tuesday, he said, "We were elected for four years. I was elected for four years. And I want us to use these four years to lead our country out of this difficult phase." He also rejected suggestions that he might try to govern without his centre-left partners, saying it was an "illusion" to think his conservatives could get measures through parliament on their own.

Sunday’s elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin are therefore set to test not only the strength of AfD, but also the stability of Merz’s leadership, the standing of the CDU and the future of the government’s reform drive.