India Today ·
Large-scale war surges up global risk list, overtaking pandemics and misinformation
A global survey finds war and geopolitical tensions dominating the risk landscape, while AI concerns rise and pandemics fade as experts warn that international cooperation is weakening.
Large-scale war has surged up the global risk rankings, jumping 16 places from 2024 in what the latest assessment describes as the steepest rise of any threat on the list, as geopolitical tensions increasingly overshadow concerns that dominated the risk landscape two years ago.
The assessment draws on the views of 1,300 people from governments, international organisations, civil society, the private sector and academia, covering every region of the world. Respondents assessed 28 political, economic, environmental, societal and technological threats based on their likelihood, potential damage and the world's readiness to cope with them.
The findings point to a sharp change in how global risks are perceived. While environmental threats, misinformation and pandemics dominated the picture two years ago, geopolitical tension, large-scale war and a weakening rule of law now sit at the centre.
More than a third of those surveyed, 36 per cent, believe the effects of a large-scale war could reach a significant share of humanity within a year. That figure rises to 76 per cent when the timeframe is extended to seven years.
Large-scale war was also the only risk to feature among the top six across all four measures tracked in the assessment: importance, imminence, interconnectedness with other threats and the extent to which institutions are unprepared to respond.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the shift in stark terms in the report's foreword.
“The findings are sobering. Political risks have moved centre stage. The prospect of large-scale war is seen as far more important and far more immediate than it was two years ago,” Guterres wrote.
“At the same time, the institutions expected to respond are seen as less able to act.”
The rise in concern over war and geopolitical tensions is visible across all seven regions covered by the survey.
Large-scale war and geopolitical tension now rank among the top 10 threats in every region and make the top five in six of them. Two years ago, the same risks appeared in the top five in only one region.
Weapons of mass destruction have also entered the top 10 in Central and Southern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania.
In Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, respondents reported growing concerns about the possibility of a global financial crisis, the downsides of artificial intelligence and the increasing power of technology companies.
AI-related risks have also entered the top 10 in Europe and North America.
The picture is markedly different for pandemics and biological threats. Both have fallen out of the top 10 across every region, reversing the situation two years ago, when they remained among the most pressing risks in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The assessment warns against looking at individual threats in isolation.
Shortages of natural resources, economic fragmentation, misinformation and weakening multilateral institutions can intensify geopolitical tensions, which in turn can increase the risk of large-scale war.
The survey identified 705 connections between different risks. Of these, the link between geopolitical tension and large-scale war emerged as the strongest.
That interconnectedness means a crisis in one area can create or deepen pressure elsewhere, making it harder for institutions and governments to tackle threats separately.
Artificial intelligence is another area where concern has risen sharply.
Fears surrounding AI, other frontier technologies and the concentration of power enabled by them have grown considerably over the past two years. At the same time, respondents see the multilateral system as the least prepared to deal with technological threats.
Climate change, meanwhile, remains firmly on the global risk map.
Inaction on climate change is still rated the single most important risk overall and remains high across every region, alongside concerns about shortages of natural resources.
The report's authors caution that environmental risks slipping down the rankings should not be interpreted as evidence that they have become less dangerous.
Instead, they say, some risks may simply have become less visible. That matters because issues attracting less public and political attention can also struggle to receive adequate funding.
Respondents point to several barriers that make it harder to manage rising risks.
Weak governance and coordination, a lack of political consensus, and declining trust and accountability are identified as major obstacles. Other problems include poor prioritisation, resistance from the public, politicians or businesses, and gaps in data.
Funding is another major concern.
As many as 86 per cent of respondents say funding for risk reduction is insufficient. The report particularly identifies natural hazards and the risk of multilateral institutions collapsing as areas where funding is inadequate.
The report does not present its findings as a forecast of what will happen. Instead, it describes the assessment as a snapshot of how experts and decision-makers currently perceive global risks.
Despite the growing divisions and competing threats, respondents continue to see joint action between governments as by far the most effective way to prevent or reduce risks.
The report argues that no country, company or institution can confront these threats alone.
“The 2026 Global Risk Report sets out the evidence that must inform our choices. We owe it to present and future generations to use this knowledge wisely, and to act while cooperation can still shape a safer course,” Guterres said.
“The choice is ours.”