AAP faces fiscal, political challenges with barely six months left for assembly polls

CHANDIGARH: With the 2027 Punjab assembly elections less than six months away, the AAP government is facing political and fiscal challenges, with employees and farmers stepping up pressure to meet their demands.

The politics has also turned personal. The Akal Takht, the highest temporal seat of the Sikhs, declared Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann “guru dokhi” and “Khalsa Panth virodhi” (anti-Guru, anti-Panth). An alleged accusation that the CM’s wife, Dr Gurpreet Kaur, took a Rs 5-crore bribe to bury a rape case has further put the party in a difficult position.

As the assembly polls draw closer, various sections of society are stepping up pressure on the government to meet their demands. This is traditionally one of the most politically challenging periods for any ruling government.

State government employees are pressing for long-pending demands, including DA arrears, restoration of the old pension scheme and other service-related issues. They have held demonstrations and gone on mass leave twice. The government issued them show-cause notices but later withdrew them.

Farmers, meanwhile, are protesting over issues related to power supply, fertilisers and food grain procurement.

Despite its precarious financial position, the government may have to address at least some of these demands to placate a significant section of its voter base.

Political analyst Prof Kuldip Singh, while speaking to TNIE, said the issues of employees, farmers and the state’s debt would combine to make AAP’s attempt to regain power a formidable task. He said the government was already diverting limited financial resources towards freebies.

“The announcement by the Akal Takht declaring CM Mann guru dokhi and Khalsa Panth virodhi would weaken AAP’s appeal among the Sikh population, which is around 57 per cent of the state’s total population,” he said. “The frequent interventions by the CM’s wife in the government’s functioning also blunt CM Mann’s anti-dynasty tirade against the SAD and Congress.”

The drug menace is also back in focus and is likely to be a major issue in the upcoming polls. Two recent incidents have brought the issue into sharper focus.

Sikh youth Mohanjit Singh, who waved a black flag at Mann in a village in Sangrur to protest the drug menace, was allegedly thrashed by the state police. Days later, Gulzar Singh, a Dalit daily-wager from Sangrur, questioned Finance Minister Harpal Singh Cheema about chitta (drugs) in his village. He was subsequently pressured by the local sarpanch and police to apologise publicly. He later died by suicide, naming Cheema and others.

The opposition parties, Congress, BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), are seeking to use these issues to target the government. The Congress held a major protest on Tuesday. The BJP is seeking to build its campaign around the drug and law-and-order issues that Mann had earlier sought to own. The party will also begin a 12-day anti-drug yatra.

The BJP is also comparing its Rs 2,100 monthly Haryana Lado Lakshmi Yojana with AAP’s Rs 1,000 Mawan Dhiyan Satkar Yojana for women.

SAD President Sukhbir Badal is travelling across the state with his ‘Punjab Bachao’ rallies, focusing on drugs, healthcare, drinking water, roads and education. The new party Akali Dal (Waris Punjab De) is fielding candidates from families of Sikh ‘martyrs’. The party is also banking on the drug issue and jailed MP Amritpal Singh as a ‘millenarian’ solution to gain political support.

The government will also have to find resources to sustain the Mukhya Mantri Mawan Dhiyan Satkar Yojana, which provides monthly financial assistance to women. It will have to continue additional ration support under the Meri Rasoi scheme, fund the Mukhya Mantri Teerath Yatra and clear PSPCL’s subsidy dues.

Clearing the PSPCL dues is critical because the utility needs adequate liquidity to purchase power from the exchange and meet rising demand, particularly during the paddy season.

Another potential challenge is the growing scrutiny of bureaucrats and officials by the Enforcement Directorate and other central agencies. Officials under the lens are likely to become increasingly cautious in decision-making. This could slow governance at a time when the government needs to demonstrate delivery.

The CM has repeatedly claimed that his government has fulfilled all its 2022 poll guarantees. These include 300 units of free electricity for domestic consumers, daytime power supply to farmers, canal water reaching tail ends, government jobs for 70,000 youths and lakhs of employment opportunities in the private sector. He has also cited free universal health insurance, affordable public healthcare and quality public education.

The Election Commission can announce the Punjab assembly elections any time now. This could trigger another phase of “Aaya Ram Gaya Ram” politics, with MLAs and other leaders weighing their options and parties trying to retain their flock.

With by-polls no longer possible after today, switching sides could become a low-risk political gamble for legislators seeking greener pastures.