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The road to Türkiye: How emissions will dominate the Antalya climate summit
The first of a 3-part series looks at how emission will be a major issue at the Antalya climate summit to be held in November
8 min read Last Updated : Sep 17 2026 | 10:19 PM IST
Speaking at the Commonwealth Secretariat in London, Chief Justice of India Surya Kant recently said, “Countries that are finally industrialising are being asked to move rapidly towards renewable power and often made to bear the brunt of criticism when they cannot move fast enough. In comparison, the nations urging that transition spent two centuries building their own strength on coal and oil.” Courts must be willing to search for solutions that protect the environment without losing sight of the legitimate needs of development, he added.
Kant’s thinking seems to reflect New Delhi’s changing stance on climate change and development. The euphoria and optimism seen at COP 26 (26th Conference of the Parties to the UN climate agreement) in Scotland in 2021 have waned from the highs reached when Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the event and announced India’s ambitious goal to neutralise greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or achieve net zero by 2070.
He also attended COP 28 in Dubai, which concluded with the UAE Consensus calling for “a transition away from fossil fuels”.
But since then, India’s top leaders have chosen to skip the climate summit. There was no large Indian representation at COP 29 in Baku— not even a country pavilion — or at COP 30 in Brazil. The level of Indian representation at COP 31 in Türkiye is still unclear, industry officials said.
India was the last among the major emitters to submit its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), a commitment each nation makes on the world stage on how it plans to meet its climate targets in five-year cycles. India’s latest NDC concludes with 2035.
Earlier this year, New Delhi backed out of hosting COP 33 in 2028. China and South Korea have now pitched in to host it, according to Carbon Brief, a climate journal.
“India’s position has not shifted — the world’s attention has,’’ said Sumant Sinha, founder and chairman of clean energy developer ReNew, in an interview. “We said we would deliver at home, and we have. We also said that fairness requires finance and technology commitments to be honoured, and there we are still waiting.’’
“India’s decision on hosting a particular COP should not be confused with a weakening of its domestic commitment,’’ added Vineet Mittal, chairman of Avaada group, a leading clean energy conglomerate.
India’s latest NDC for 2031-35 commits the nation to cutting the emission intensity of GDP by 47 per cent from 2005 levels by 2035, and achieving about 60 per cent non-fossil electricity capacity by 2035, with technology transfer and low-cost international finance, he added. Government data shows that non-fossil fuels make up more than half of India’s 550-Gw total capacity.
While the drive for domestic clean energy advances — especially after the war in West Asia disrupted over half of India’s oil and gas supplies — India’s messaging on climate change has receded.
The tepid enthusiasm, in turn, could be because developing countries, led by China and India, feel hard done by, experts said. While these countries have been exceeding clean energy targets, developed nations have failed to keep their end of the bargain to provide at least $300 billion annually in climate finance, experts said. The money is needed in part for clean energy technology.
“The global climate order is under strain; it would be dishonest to pretend otherwise,’’ Sinha said. “The US exit from the Paris Agreement is a structural setback — it removes finance and leadership at the moment we need
more of both.”
“If we look at the arithmetic, current policies put the world on a 2.5-3°C path. Even if every country delivers its pledges in full, cumulative emissions of roughly 855 gigatonnes would still overshoot the 90 gigatonnes left for 1.5°C several times over,” Sinha added.
India’s rate of growth in annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy-use in 2025 was the highest among the world’s three biggest polluters — the other two being China and the US—according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), although China was by far the biggest emitter in volume terms.
India’s GHG emissions, fuelled largely by coal-fired power stations, grew by 3.2 per cent in 2025 on the year, accounting for around 8 per cent of the world’s 40 billion tonnes of CO2 (carbon dioxide) equivalent. Growth in emissions was higher in 2024 at 10.3 per cent, according to IEA, and the decline in 2025 stemmed from lower temperatures last year, which tempered the need for electricity, shows government data.
“To link rising GHG emissions in a country like India with local urban or city air pollution is to fall for a misplaced narrative. Pollution caused by sulphur oxides or nitrogen oxides is a separate problem that is to be treated scientifically by fixing industrial compliance, not by limiting coal-based electricity generation,’’ said R R Rashmi, distinguished fellow at the think tank TERI and a former negotiator for India at COPs.
“India’s absolute emissions are expected to rise as the economy expands to meet the demands of energy access, industrialisation, urbanisation, and increased cooling needs,’’ said Abhilash Raghavan, director & head, environmental, social, and governance, at AMPIN Energy Transition.
“However, the country’s emissions intensity is decreasing.’’In volume terms, Chinese emissions were a massive 140 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent last year but grew by the lowest at only 1.1 per cent on-year. The $21- trillion economy — over five times bigger than India — spews the most greenhouse gases at around 30 per cent of global emissions, while the top three emitters account for over 50 per cent, according to calculations based on 2024 GHG data of IEA.
However, purely on CO2 emission basis, after excluding methane and nitrogen, India’s growth in emissions from energy use in 2025 was the lowest on record, barring the pandemic-induced shutdown in 2020, and the lowest growth rate among the world’s three biggest polluters—China, the US, and India — according to the IEA’s latest Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy database.
While fossil fuel consumption made up 93 per cent of India’s total energy supply, 2025 marked its lowest market share in the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy dataset (which goes back to 1965).|
“India’s emissions will keep growing to 2030,” said Sanjeev Aggarwal, founder & chairman, Hexa Climate “That is arithmetic, not policy failure — we are adding demand at a pace no other major economy is, and nobody has ever industrialised while shrinking their energy footprint.’’
Coal will remain the balancing fuel through this decade, he added.
In 2025, coal was the main source of India’s energy (59 per cent), followed by oil (28 per cent), according to calculations based on the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026.
“Non-fossil sources have crossed 52 per cent of installed capacity five years ahead of the target,’’ Sinha said. “The complication is demand: It is growing at around 6.4 per cent a year, among the fastest rates globally, so coal’s share falls while coal volumes still rise. The real question is whether we can deploy renewables fast enough to meet demand growth outright.’’
India’s behind-the-meter (such as residential rooftop or commercial installations) solar capacity increased by 40 per cent year-on-year to reach 43.6 Gw, which was the largest increase seen anywhere outside China, in 2025.
These factors led to a 3 per cent fall in coal generation and a 15 per cent fall in gas generation, according to a note by Finnish think tank CREA. But the lack of transmission infrastructure prevented further integration of renewables, following rapid increases in capacity in the last five years.
“We must start with a very simple assumption — that there is no magic bullet (to slash emissions),” said Mohit Bhargava, country director, India Energy & Climate Center, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley.
“Reducing the emissions trajectory or industrial decarbonisation, these are all things which happen over a very long period. That’s why it’s important that we should at least have a very clear view that we’ll go down this road,’’ Bhargava, former CEO of NTPC Green Energy, said.
“The framing of ‘development versus sustainability’ is not the right lens,’’ said Rajesh Jha, country sustainability manager, ABB India, part of a Zurich-headquartered global technology company in electrification and automation.
“Both are scaling in parallel, and today coal is functioning as a buffer while renewable and grid infrastructure catch up, which is one reason coal capacity is still projected to rise towards 307 Gw by fiscal 2034-35, even as demand for clean energy grows faster than at any point before.’’
The question before developing countries is how much affordable clean energy can be blended with fossil fuels to power development and safeguard the environment. The answer to this is tied inextricably with the need for finance.