The New Indian Express ·
El Nino may trigger severe drought in Karnataka in 2027: State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre
CHITRADURGA: Karnataka may face a severe drought in 2027 if the prevailing El Nino conditions continue beyond February-March next year, warned M S Divakara, director, Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC), Bengaluru.
Divakara said prolonged El Nino conditions had made 2026 the year with the lowest rainfall recorded in Karnataka in the last five decades. As of September 16, 30 of the state's 31 districts were in the rainfall-deficient category, indicating severe drought conditions across the state. He said the impact was being felt across Karnataka and several neighbouring states.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also observed rainfall deficiency across the entire South Peninsular India during the current South-West Monsoon 2026. This has affected rainfall distribution, agriculture and water availability.
El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of the same climate cycle. A strong El Nino can significantly alter atmospheric circulation, winds, cloud formation and rainfall patterns.
“When the temperature of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean rises substantially, evaporation increases and atmospheric circulation gets disturbed. This affects cloud formation and the distribution of rainfall. Globally, some areas may receive very heavy rainfall, while large areas could remain dry,” he said.
The latest international ENSO assessment indicates that El Nino is strengthening. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in its September 10 assessment, said there was a more than 90% chance of a very strong El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27.
Divakara said the most serious concern was the impact on food production. Prolonged dry conditions could affect crops, fodder availability, livestock, dairy farming and rural livelihoods.
“Food productivity will be severely affected if these conditions continue. Fodder, livestock, dairy farming and livelihoods are all linked to the availability of water and rainfall,” he said.
Farmers, including those with access to protective irrigation, are increasingly opting for drought-resilient crop varieties. Ragi and other millets, which require comparatively less water, could help farmers cope with prolonged dry conditions.
Scientists have also developed photo-insensitive and drought-tolerant varieties that can withstand variations in rainfall and temperature, he said.
The director said Rainfall towards the end of September could provide some relief. Low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal could bring rain to parts of Karnataka. This would be particularly important for the Rabi season by improving soil moisture and water availability.
If El Nino continues into February-March, changes in temperature and atmospheric moisture could affect the winter season and crops such as Bengal gram and mango, Divakara said.
The impact, however, is likely to vary across regions because winter temperatures and rainfall patterns may differ. Divakara said such climatic variations have occurred in the past, but increased human intervention and environmental degradation have amplified their impact.
“Earlier, human intervention was much less. Today, it is much higher, and therefore the impact of climatic variations is also more pronounced. We need to prevent man-made environmental damage and protect nature,” he said.
Divakara stressed that El Nino does not necessarily mean Karnataka will receive no rainfall. The greater concern is a change in the timing and distribution of rainfall. “Some areas may receive heavy rainfall while others remain dry. Low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal can produce intense rainfall in certain pockets, but that does not necessarily mean widespread rainfall,” he said.
Short spells of intense rain can cause runoff and flooding in some areas while providing inadequate soil moisture or groundwater recharge in rain-deficit regions.
NOAA has also cautioned that the effects of El Nino vary by region, although stronger events generally increase the likelihood of significant climatic impacts.
The director said Karnataka should prepare for a possible prolonged dry spell by promoting drought-resistant crops, ensuring fodder availability, protecting drinking-water sources and strengthening water conservation measures. Contingency plans for agriculture and livestock would also be necessary if dry conditions continue into 2027, he said.
NOAA's September outlook gives a 75% chance that the October-December 2026 El Nino could exceed the strength of previous El Nino events recorded since 1950.
For Karnataka, the immediate focus should be on monitoring rainfall and reservoir levels through the remaining monsoon period and assessing the implications for the Rabi season.
A prolonged dry spell could put additional pressure on drinking water, agriculture, livestock, fodder and rural livelihoods.